Economic Realities in 2024: Inflation & Interest Rates and the "Illusion" of a Soft Landing

Market consensus has shifted to the 'soft landing' narrative, but with several well-established recession indicators flashing red the window for a recession has not passed. This presentation will explore why inflation will decline below 2% in 2024 and deflation could emerge as a more significant risk. Sixty years of historical data will be used to illustrate that interest rates always move lower at the end of the Fed’s tightening cycle and the yield curve steepens. The presentation will clarify why the unprecedented rise in US debt is a catalyst for lower rates and strategies for effectively navigating a declining rate environment will be outlined. The discussion will also address why liquidity is set to become much more challenging for the markets.

Learning Objectives:

1. Why fiscal policy and NOT monetary policy is responsible for the surge in consumer inflation and why deflation may emerge as a more significant risk
2. Why the unprecedented rise in US debt is a catalyst for lower rates
3. What key metrics to monitor for detecting emerging liquidity strains in the markets